Archive for the ‘TAGMAT’ Category

TAGMAT!: Lesson #147, Trends

October 23, 2008

TAGMAT (They are giving money away today!) is a weekly column done every week by APIAS.net’s resident gambling addict, Smoothron.  This site in no way advocates gambling, especially excessively.  Smoothron’s degenerate friend, who will refer to as Casino Bobby also gives you his picks for the week.  If we can tell you anything, bet against both of them and you should be able to retire within the first month of the season.

Not exactly the greatest week if you decided to follow the picks of Casino Bobby and myself.  Our combined 1-6-1 record didn’t exactly help anyone’s economic troubles, except for Vegas’.  Of course, the week previous I went 3-1; apparently, much like my least favorite coach in the world (Sly Croom), I cannot put two straight weeks together.  Casino Bobby just hasn’t been the same after he spent some time in the slammer.  His thinking has been off, and Governor Beshear is still going to outlaw online gambling in the great state of Kentucky.  As you can see (if you read titles), I wanted to talk for a moment about trends.  If you are really looking for a trend, it may be that we suck at picking games against the spread.  HOWEVER, don’t bail on us just yet, we’re going to figure this whole thing out.

The kind of trends we need to start looking at are things like schools not winning at another school’s campus in a while.  There were two great examples of this last weekend: UNC @ UVA and Mizzou @ Texas.  UNC looked like a lock (to me) at Virginia.  Virginia sucks and UNC is pretty good.  UNC was actually up 7 points late in the 4th quarter, but Virginia got a late TD, forced OT and won by 3.  UNC hasn’t won in Charlottesville since 1981.  I wasn’t even born then.  Whoops.  Then, Missouri goes to Texas and everyone is talking about how the Tigers will respond after losing to OK State and might beat the Longhorns.  That was enough to scare me off.  Texas put up 35 before MU even knew the game had started.  Also, Missouri hasn’t won in Austin in 114 (ONE HUNDRED AND FOURTEEN!) years.  I’m not even sure if John McCain was alive then.  Also, Mack Brown hasn’t lost a game at Texas after the Red River Shootout.

The main point of this is this: You probably want to find these trends, because I plan on giving reasons for betting on games like, “USC will be uninspired because there aren’t any hot chicks in Oregon.”  Sorry, maybe next year we’ll do better.  On to the picks, if you dare.  (more…)

TAGMAT!: Halfway Home Hopefuls

October 16, 2008

TAGMAT (They are giving money away today!) is a weekly column done every week by APIAS.net’s resident gambling addict, Smoothron.  This site in no way advocates gambling, especially excessively.  Smoothron’s degenerate friend, who will refer to as Casino Bobby also gives you his picks for the week.  If we can tell you anything, bet against both of them and you should be able to retire within the first month of the season.

Here we are, roughly halfway through the college football season.  Wow, it seems like just yesterday that it was that first Saturday of CFB… beer at 9AM, breakfast at 10AM, drunk by 12PM and bed by 3AM the next day.  Oh the glorious!  Last week, we talked about realizing teams for what they were and seeing them for what they are; and somehow it actually worked (I’ll take 3-1 any weekend).  At any rate, things are shaping up and we can start looking at possible National Champions, from a gambling perspective of course.  I’ve said many times that future bets are for suckers, but if you can’t tell, I’m a big sucker.  Here’s a list of teams that could win the title and their odds as of today to win it.

  • #1 Texas (6/1):  Were the Longhorns very impressive last Saturday against OU? Absolutely, but they still have a really tough schedule ahead. They could win out, but in the climate of today’s college football, it’s highly unlikely.  Their best shot is to lose in the next week or two, get their loss then try and bounce back.  I still think Mack Brown can find a way to screw this up and the Longhorns end up in the Cotton Bowl.  Save your cash.
  • #2 Alabama (3/1):  Nick Saban has obviously proved he is the man when it comes to recruiting and coaching, but is it too much too fast for the young Tide?  I say yes as ‘Bama still has three tough games left and a possible fourth.  Tennessee (rivalry), at LSU (there is no doubt this game will be at night) and Auburn (rivalry) all could be a bump in the road before the SEC Championship.  This is a really short price for a team that plays fifteen true freshmen.  My bet is that the Tide lose and don’t ever make it to Atlanta.
  • #3 Penn State (7/2):  JoePa has one Wolverine fan and many others believe in the Nittany Lions this year.  The HD or 3D offense they’re running is clicking and the defense looks just nasty.  The country shudders at the thought of a Big 10 team playing in the title game again, but if PSU gets past OSU next weekend everyone’s worst fears may be realized.  I wish they had better odds, but JoePa probably has a few more tricks up his sleeve.  The Nittany Lions aren’t a bad bet to get there, but chances are they (like OSU the last two years) couldn’t compete against the elite teams.
  • #5 Florida (6/1):  Yes, the Gators got beat by Ole Miss.  They also just hung 51 on the feared and revered LSU defense.  If Tebow and the Florida offense keep things rolling like that, the SEC better watch out.  I say the revenge factor gets them past Georgia and the rest of the schedule isn’t too difficult until the SEC Championship.  Florida has championship experience from two years ago.  I picked the Gators two months ago and am not going to change my pick now.  Keep in mind they have the best odds of any team that I think can win it and this is Smoothron’s pick.
  • #6 USC (3/1):  Pete Carroll has his squad looking invincible again after the trip-up at Oregon St.  USC probably has the easiest schedule of the bunch as well, but I think that loss to the Beavers ends up hurting them too much in the polls.  If you compare one-loss USC and Florida teams at the end of the year, the Gators are going to win that battle pretty easily.  Florida will have gone through the brutal SEC East, played LSU and played another elite team in the SEC Championship.  USC will have beaten at most two ranked teams.  Advantage Gators.

Yes, I just took Florida over Penn State to win the National Championship.  Also, I don’t want to hear anything about Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Missouri, Georgia or any team not in a major conference.  Oklahoma is banking on Texas to lose twice in conference just to get to the Big XII title game, Texas Tech couldn’t guard Michigan’s offense, Missouri is a joke, Georgia is going to lose another one or two and all teams not in BCS conferences please see UGA vs Hawaii in the Sugar Bowl.  Rant over, let’s get to this week’s picks. (more…)

TAGMAT!: Oh, Hell

October 9, 2008

TAGMAT (They are giving money away today!) is a weekly column done every week by APIAS.net’s resident gambling addict, Smoothron.  This site in no way advocates gambling, especially excessively.  Smoothron’s degenerate friend, who will refer to as Casino Bobby also gives you his picks for the week.  If we can tell you anything, bet against both of them and you should be able to retire within the first month of the season.

Some people would throw in the towel at this point.  A subpar gambling season would cause some to run to the hills exclaiming, “I’m never gambling again!”  That is about the same as the time you were a college freshman and got sick in the dorm and you told your roommate, “I’m never drinking again.”  You serious, Clark?  Everyone knows that you drank the next night and everyone knows you’ll be right back checking the lines the next week.  Don’t get discouraged, find some sort of silver lining.  Isn’t there something to gain from weeks and weeks of picking losers?  Sure there is.

The good thing about this season is that teams have played five or six games.  We are starting to figure teams out, we know who they are.  Some teams aren’t as good as we thought they might be: Clemson, Auburn and Wisconsin.  Others teams ARE WHO WE THOUGHT THEY WERE!: Oklahoma, LSU and Texas.  So, it’s time to quit looking at expectations and now look at what teams are this season.  West Virginia isn’t very good, so don’t bet on them just because they have Pat White and Noel Devine.  Nick Saban IS very good, so don’t bet against them just because they play fifteen (15!) true freshmen.  Figure out who a team is for this year, not what they were or should have been, and then bet on them.  Hey, I tried.

Here goes nothing… or something… but probably nothing. (more…)

TAGMAT!: Watch Out Weekend!

October 2, 2008

TAGMAT (They are giving money away today!) is a weekly column done every week by APIAS.net’s resident gambling addict, Smoothron.  This site in no way advocates gambling, especially excessively.  Smoothron’s degenerate friend, who will refer to as Casino Bobby also gives you his picks for the week.  If we can tell you anything, bet against both of them and you should be able to retire within the first month of the season.

Of course, like every other prediction I make, when I said last weekend’s college football wouldn’t be up to par you should have known it would turn the whole landscape upside down.  Although, you really should have known about USC, that was about the only thing I have picked right all year.  Last weekend is gone, so let’s look forward to this weekend.  This weekend begins one of the greatest gambling months of the year.  If you are so lucky to live in APIAS headquarters, you know that Keeneland opens on Friday.  The greatness of Keeneland has been discussed on this site many times, so if you don’t know yet about it, I guess we’ll just never reach you.  There’s just something special about being able to sit in the clubhouse at the racetrack, betting on horses, calling in bets to the football games you’re watching and getting absolutely hammered.  There’s really only one thing that can sum that up: God Bless America.

Let’s turn our attention back to college football, though.  Two games have totally jumped off the page at me: WVU (-8) @ ECU a few weeks back and Wisconsin (-6) @ Michigan last weekend.  Obviously, being a Michigan fan, I didn’t touch that game, but pretty much everyone I talked to thought the Badgers were the lock of last weekend.  What does this mean?  It means that the people making the lines are getting smarter, which is not good for the casual bettor.  There was no reason West Virginia shouldn’t have gone into ECU and worked the Pirates.  Hell, I probably would have given double-digits in that game with WVU, but Vegas knows a hell of a lot more than most and that’s why they have more money than us.  The same thing happened with Wisconsin last weekend.  Shouldn’t they have beaten Michigan last weekend?  Absolutely, but someone knew something more than the public.  So, if I can say one thing, if a line looks too good to be true… it probably is.

On with the weekend.  This is the weekend we make it all back!  (more…)

TAGMAT!: College Football Must Do Better

September 25, 2008

TAGMAT (They are giving money away today!) is a weekly column done every week by APIAS.net’s resident gambling addict, Smoothron.  This site in no way advocates gambling, especially excessively.  Smoothron’s degenerate friend, who will refer to as Casino Bobby also gives you his picks for the week.  If we can tell you anything, bet against both of them and you should be able to retire within the first month of the season.


Remember back in college when you used to get laid?  You can think of that one special weekend (back when weekends started on Thursday) when you brought home girls who were smoking hot and you started feeling really good about yourself?  Yeah, that was last weekend in college football.  There were good games on all day long; we at the APIAS headquarters had 3 TVs rolling all day and at times had to flip back on forth on one of them.  The SEC West was possibly won, UGA proved they could dominate the Pac-10 and Florida finally made a friend realize it might be time for Fat Phil to waddle off into the sunset.

But, then there were those other weekends that weren’t so special.  You went out, but your game didn’t have quite as much salt.  Your go-to ladies were out of town or not responding to your many (MANY!) text offerings.  You ended up just getting absolutely hammered drunk, got back to the house and passed out while attempting to jerk off.  Welcome to this weekend of college football.  There are plenty of games that have little-to-no appeal at all, no more than seven games which might be construed as interesting and only ONE must-watch game (Bama @ UGA).  Is there something ADs can do?  Maybe not, but one would hope that weekends like this would be more and more rare as we get further into the season.

The positive is always that no matter how bad the game is, Buffalo @ Central Michigan can turn into the Rose Bowl if you put enough on it.  Follow along and as usual, Casino Bobby and I will give you the best of what we can find. 

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TAGMAT!: Never Make Rash Decisions!

September 18, 2008

TAGMAT (They are giving money away today!) is a weekly column done every week by APIAS.net’s resident gambling addict, Smoothron.  This site in no way advocates gambling, especially excessively.  Smoothron’s degenerate friend, who will refer to as Casino Bobby also gives you his picks for the week.  If we can tell you anything, bet against both of them and you should be able to retire within the first month of the season.

Okay, okay, I know you were expecting to see Jim Tressel’s face in this spot.  Sure, in the past, Sly Croom’s mug appeared.  And last week, Bill Stewart graced us his with presence.  I did lose the OSU game last week, but Tressel is still good and happens to own my favorite football team so I won’t be angering him any more.  Besides, Ohio State will not lose a game for the rest of the season, play in the Rose Bowl and will generally be a good team to bet for the rest of the year.  USC is more the team to worry about, from a gambling perspective.  Did I miss the game last week on them?  Absolutely (although in my defense, I thought C. Wells was going to play).  But, USC always plays well in those types of games.  Their biggest stumbles come against mediocre Pac-10 teams they should beat by 30. 

Does that warrant Pete Carroll a ‘no bet’ picture?  Hell no!  But, bettor beware if you take the Trojans (obligatory joke passed by) for the rest of the year.  That game in the middle of the year against Arizona may look like a lock at 18.5, but that Stanford game looked the same last year.  USC is really good, but every announcer will talk about how no one can beat them, they should be playing in the NFC West and all that shit.  Diatribe over.

It’s a great weekend to be a college football fan!  LSU goes to Auburn to maybe decide in September who wins the SEC West.  UGA is going west of Alabama for the first time since I’ve been alive.  The Gators are on upset alert with a trip to Knoxville.  And, mercifully, the Wolverines are NOT playing so no one has to watch that ‘offense.’  Grab a tv (or 3, like we had at APIAS headquarters last weekend), grab 100 beers and get comfortable.  Saturday could be a LOOOOONG one.  Let’s make some money!  (more…)

TAGMAT!: Let’s Just Start Making a List

September 11, 2008

TAGMAT (They are giving money away today!) is a weekly column done every week by APIAS.net’s resident gambling addict, Smoothron.  This site in no way advocates gambling, especially excessively.  Smoothron’s degenerate friend, who will refer to as Casino Bobby also gives you his picks for the week.  If we can tell you anything, bet against both of them and you should be able to retire within the first month of the season.

Well, that didn’t take long.  Throughout different gambling seasons, there are times to find a team that is good against the spread, and then there are teams/coaches you cannot bank on under any circumstance.  Last week, we found Gambling Enemy #1, in Sly Croom.  It didn’t take too long after that, to find #2.  My partner in kind-of-crime (depending on where you are), Casino Bobby, and I both absolutely loved West Virginia over East Carolina.  To me, it was the easiest bet of the weekend.  Vegas had overreacted to ECU’s beating of Virginia Tech the week before and West Virginia had the two best players on the field (Pat White and Noel Devine).  I was calling people, proclaiming West Virginia as the lock of the year (Sorry again, TGC, about that $9.86 gone out of your BetUS account).  Bill Stewart is going to run West Virginia into the ground faster than Bob Huggins will run his new Benz into a telephone pole after a long night in Morgantown.  Congratulations, Bill Stewart, you have joined an elite club of terrible football coaches that is sure to gain more members week by week.

It’s a fabulous week for college football.  Two historical top programs play each other when Michigan goes to Notre Dame, Georgia tries to make Spurrier be 0-2 in the SEC (already!!) and two of the best three coaches in the country face off.  Yes, Ohio State is going out to L.A. to play USC.  Not only do these teams both like beating the shit out of Michigan, but they also happen to be ranked in the top 5 in the country right now.  If there’s a big game like that, you can be sure that CB and I are taking opposite sides.  Jump along to win some straight cash, homey.

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TAGMAT!: Let’s At Least Learn Something

September 4, 2008

TAGMAT (They are giving money away today!) is a weekly column done every week by APIAS.net’s resident gambling addict, Smoothron.  This site in no way advocates gambling, especially excessively.  Smoothron’s degenerate friend, who will refer to as Casino Bobby also gives you his picks for the week.  If we can tell you anything, bet against both of them and you should be able to retire within the first month of the season.

Ahh, the tale of two weeks.  Casino Bobby gives you three winners and one outright loser.  I give you one winner and three outright losers.  If you’re actually investing in these picks, I hold nothing against you when you bet against me.  It actually makes a lot of sense at this point.  I thought perhaps after a nine-month sabbatical I could have at least won one week, alas it wasn’t to be.  The SEC goes 10-2 overall on the weekend, and somehow I pick the two losers of the weekend.  Unreal.

Well, as a good friend acquaintance of mine likes to say, “Back in the game!!!”  Am I going to let a poor Week 1 showing stop me?  Of course not.  The world is full of analogies filled with people bouncing back after a poor start.  I am not going to take the time to look them up right now, but you get the idea.  If anything, there has to be a lesson taken from a poor start.  The lesson, as always, is to NEVER, UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES bet on Sly Croom.  I should have known better, but that’s a Week 1 mistake and one that I will not make again.  Now that we’ve all learned something, let’s jump along to the picks.

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TAGMAT!: So it Begins

August 27, 2008

TAGMAT (They are giving money away today!) is a weekly column done every week by APIAS.net’s resident gambling addict, Smoothron.  This site in no way advocates gambling, especially excessively.  Smoothron’s degenerate friend, who will refer to as Casino Bobby also gives you his picks for the week.  If we can tell you anything, bet against both of them and you should be able to retire within the first month of the season.

I am so excited to be able to gamble again.  Yes, I’m aware that gambling is allowed on sports other than college football, but this is the official start of the gambling season.  Get excited!  With no games to recap from the last week, I’ll go ahead and share a story about where the title of this column came from.  Let me take you back to Keeneland, April of 2006.  Casino Bobby, BobWicket, cp22bru, Casino Bobby’s mom and a cast of thousands are tailgating before heading into the races.  I put down about 20 beers in two hours and embarrassed myself incredibly in front of CB’s mom.  Quite impressive, of course.  Somehow, I managed to find my way to the track and was coherent enough to place and win a few bets.  CB and Bru are looking for me and spot me from a balcony looking down at the paddock.  “Smooth!  What the hell are you doing??”  I look up, perplexed, and then realize these are my friends.  “Boys, they are giving money away today!”  I, of course, had won about $37.  Regardless, that’s how we’re looking at this season:  they’re just going to give us the money.  Follow along after the jump if you want to live like Turtle for the rest of your life.

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