Archive for the ‘Fun With Stats’ Category

Cake or Death? UK Basketball Chooses Both

January 21, 2009

cakeThe beginning of this UK basketball year saw the Wildcats turning the ball over like Andrew DeClercq turns over burgers these days.  For the first 5 games of the season UK was turning the ball over at an unbelievable rate.  Then, things calmed down a bit, the competition got a little worse, and the team has been able to right the ship in the turnover category to some extent.  What they haven’t done well all year is stop teams from piling up offensive rebounds.

That brings us to the point of today’s discussion class.  Which is worse, a turnover or giving up an offensive rebound.  We have our own theories on this, of course, but we’ll use the Kentucky 2008-2009 team’s current stats as a guideline for answering this question.  After all, they’ve made their share of turnovers and allowed entirely too many offensive rebounds on the year.  To continue following us down the rabbit hole that is UK basketball statistics and analysis make the jump.

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The Case for DeAndre Liggins: Florida Atlantic Edition

December 29, 2008

dligThroughout the UK basketball season we’ll be taking a look at the point guard play each game.  Many fans have called for freshman DeAndre Liggins to be starting over Michael Porter.  Both players have taken turns playing better than one another and the assist to turnover ratio of each is abysmal.  Billy Gillispie seems to have a plan for this year’s teams, but we’ll investigate what the stats say in this segment.

(Also, E wasn’t able to post this, so I am putting this up on the site for him.  Remember, all positive statements about Michael Porter were from EDayStat and NOT Smoothron.  Thanks for playing.)

The UK basketball Cats took on Florida Atlantic Saturday and Michael Porter turned in another solid performance.  Porter had a 5 to 1 assist to turnover ratio in 27 minutes versus DeAndre Liggins’ 2 to 1 in 15 minutes. Not bad by either young man in this game.  Points and rebounds were a wash in this one as well.  Let’s look at the differentials.

Porter +10
Liggins -4
Both +1

This all adds up to a 7 point Kentucky win in the end and again it looks like the team has been more efficient with Porter on the floor.  This is the third straight game where both the stats, and the feel of the game, seem to be leaning toward Porter playing much better than Liggins.  Even the hardcore “ditch Porter” crew would be hard pressed to say Porter hasn’t played solid basketball the last three games.

Where has this come from though?  The first 3-4 games of the year Porter looked shaky (at best) with the basketball and he looked damned near frightened with it in the VMI game.  In the last three games; however, he has handled the ball confidently, gotten the team into the offense, and best of all he has played solid defense.  Gillispie was very vocal in his support of Porter’s defense on Graham on Saturday.  No one else could shut him down, but Porter, who knows he’s not relied upon heavily on the offensive end, put everything he had into shadowing the guy and slowed him down a bit.

Another one goes to Porter here and as the team continues to play well it’s hard for anyone to ask for a change at the point right now.  The rotation seems to be working well and Billy seems to have things rolling in the right direction.  One more until the big measuring stick against the I-64 brethren.  That’s when we’ll really see who comes to play.

The Case for DeAndre Liggins: Tennessee State Edition

December 23, 2008

dligThroughout the UK basketball season we’ll be taking a look at the point guard play each game.  Many fans have called for freshman DeAndre Liggins to be starting over Michael Porter.  Both players have taken turns playing better than one another and the assist to turnover ratio of each is abysmal.  Billy Gillispie seems to have a plan for this year’s teams, but we’ll investigate what the stats say in this segment.

Wow, another crazy night for the basketball Cats as they fired on all cylinders.  Meeks went off in the first half and Patterson did the same in the second, each dropping 30+ points.  Just plain sick.  But what about the point guard play?  Well, as the stats (and the game film) show, Michael Porter had his second great game for UK.  Point differentials for UK while the two point guards were in the game are listed below.

Porter +32
Liggins +2
Both +12
Neither -2 

The +32 by himself for Porter is amazing.  This is the second straight game where he has had a huge differential on Liggins.  Part of that is the great start the team has had in the last two games, but that is only 10-15 points in each of those games.  Past that, Porter has just been flat out playing well, as the box scores show.

Porter 0 points, 0 rebounds, 7 assists, 1 turnover, 2 steals in 25 minutes
Liggins 7 points, 4 rebounds, 3 assists, 3 turnovers, 0 steals in 22 minutes

Those stat  lines just go to show you the difference in these two young men right now.  Porter had three good looks from the 3-point line tonight and couldn’t get them to drop.  Outside of those looks the young man doesn’t even look to score.  He has been doing a great job of facilitating the offense the last couple of games.  We’ve also liked the fact that Coach Gillispie is having Miller, Galloway, and Liggins handle the ball down the court a little when Porter is in the game.  Porter will still pop out and collect the ball inside of half court and get the offense started, but giving him the freedom to get down the court some and not have to worry about handling the ball up every time seems to be helping a lot with his confidence.

Liggins on the other hand is looking to create with every touch of the basketball.  He still appears to be pushing a bit too hard some times, as evidenced by his turnover numbers and quick shots at times.  We think that’s what you’ll get out of the young man though, a spark plug for your offense but one that can combust on you at times.

Again, we have to give this one to Porter.  Outscored and outrebounded by Liggins tonight, Porter was still the one with a 7:1 assist to turnover ratio where Liggins’ was 1:1.  In UK’s offense this year the point guard does not have to score (although if Liggins grabs 4-5 boards a night it’s a huge plus).  Especially if Jodie Meeks can keep a 20-22 point scoring average for the year, Patterson will average 17-20, and you don’t have to have 10 points a game from the point guard position.  Harrellson, Stevenson, and now Stewart appear to be able to chip in 8-12 a night collectively, Miller and Harris (when he fully recovers, and we wish him well on that road) will be able to contribute a few points, and with the defense the Cats are playing you don’t need much else. 

Saturday brings Florida Atlantic on and we’ll be tuned in and ready to strike up another case for DeAndre Liggins on Sunday.  Until then, have a great holiday folks, and continue to cheer on the blue and white.

The Case for DeAndre Liggins: Mississippi Valley State Edition

December 8, 2008

dligOn Sunday night Billy Gillispie put Michael Porter on the Rupp Arena floor to start the game (as well as Kevin Galloway but we won’t go in to that).  As we said yesterday in our first edition of “The case for DeAndre Liggins”, we will continue to update both point guards’ point differential while on the floor.  The MVS game makes things a bit hard to look at as both players were in the game together for most of the game and the poorer competition doesn’t really give us a good measuring stick of how good the players actually are.  With that being said, we’ll move on to the numbers. 

Here are the box score stats by time.

20:00 (1st) Porter start. 0-0
15:01 (1st) Liggins in, Meeks out.  13-7
12:38 (1st) Meeks in, Liggins out.  16-11
11:43 (1st) Liggins in, Meeks out.  16-13
10:38 (1st) Miller in, Porter out.  18-15
8:30 (1st) Porter in, Liggins out.  22-15
6:16 (1st) Liggins in, Meeks out.  25-21
HALF 39-31

20:00 (2nd) Porter start.  39-31
18:22 (2nd) Liggins in, Meeks out. 42-33
11:16 (2nd) Meeks in, Liggins out. 64-44
8:10 (2nd) Liggins in, Miller out. 71-49
7:14 (2nd) Krebs in, Liggins out. 73-49
3:58 (2nd) Meeks in, Porter out. 78-51
END 88-65

Here are the players’ differentials for the entire game.

Porter +7
Both +17
Liggins +3
Neither -4

So what do we draw from this?  The Miami game had Liggins with a +17 differential while on the court in a losing cause.  Today Porter had a +4 differential on Liggins in a game UK won big.   Against poorer competition and in a game won by 23 points I don’t think the +4 difference for Porter is very important and I would call this game a wash for the two players based upon the point differential for the team while they were running the point.

If we take a peek at the box score we’ll see Porter played 34 minutes with 3 points (1-5 from three), 3 assists, 2 boards, and 5 turnovers.  Liggins played only 20 minutes today but had 10 points and 5 assists to go along with his single rebound and 3 turnovers of his own.  Porter’s turnovers per minute played was just slightly over Liggins (less than 2 tenths of a point separate them) but the assist to turnover ratio is what really stands out.  Porter turned the ball over 5 times even though he clearly is not creating scoring opportunities for his teammates (only 3 assists in 30+ minutes played at the point guard position is not very solid).  Liggins on the other hand tends to make his mistakes while trying to initiate offense for himself or more often his teammates. 

Overall, we still saw a better total game tonight from Liggins than we did Porter.  Gillispie seemed to give the fans a big eff you by playing Porter 34 minutes, but some times that’s what a coach has to do.  This here column will be taking a little hiatus for the week as UK won’t play until next Saturday, but if Michael Porter starts that day you can look forward to another edition on Sunday morning.

The Case for DeAndre Liggins: Miami Edition

December 7, 2008

dligUK has plenty of problems in basketball this year (5-3 record being one of them) but the most controversial topic of discussion on this year’s Wildcat team is the point guard play.  Everyone is calling for Michael Porter to be benched as the starting point guard in favor of talented freshman DeAndre Liggins.  We at APIAS are among the majority who think that Liggins is the young man who should be starting at the point for the Cats.  It’s not that we have anything against Porter, it’s just that he is ineffective.  How ineffective is he? 

Well, like most of our arguments at APIAS we don’t take this subject lightly.  We’re not generally of the mold of blogger that just spews our opinions without any factual back up to our argument.  Okay, well some times we do go on a tangent, but not today.  Today we’re starting a new segment on APIAS called “The case for DeAndre Liggins.”  In this segment we will be running down the game box score and determining how well the team played with Michael Porter at the helm, Liggins running point, or both players in the game at the same time.  This will be done for each and every game that Porter starts beggining with last night’s Miami game.  For the run-down of the Miami game, hit the jump.

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A Farny is NOT a Sandwich

July 30, 2008

You gotta be shittin’ me.  This jackass?  Again?

More to follow… sheesh

2008 NCAA Helmet Schedule: no sir, that’s the new TPS report coversheet

July 30, 2008

Thanks to Bevo Sports for this year’s helmet schedule.  Cal, Idaho State, and Indiana State are the only schools with new helmets this year, but it doesn’t look like they made the graphics by print time.

Just make sure you beat the new accountant to the printer or you’ll end up in a heck of a fight.

“Why I take your paper?”

Download the full thing here [LINK]

[Bevo Sports]

Everything Will Be Wonderful Now…

March 26, 2008

NFL DraftThe NFL Draft is just around the corner and, as usual talks consist of 40 times, arm strength, and vertical jumps.  Perhaps the most entertaining pre-draft talk surronds the Wonderlic Test.  According to the every reliable, always correct Wikipedia.com, “the Wonderlic is a twelve-minute, fifty-question exam to assess aptitude for learning a job and adapting to solve problems for employees.”

The test really made waves when highly touted quarterback, Vince Young scored an incredible 6 out of 50 before being drafted by the Tennessee Titans.  After the score leaked out people really started paying attention to the Wonderlic Test.  Professional football teams use the test as another measuring stick for potential draft picks.  The emphasis for the test is focused on quarterbacks as a reflection of their decision making ability.

Wonderlic scores for the 2008 draft are out.  Find out who scored well, who went Vince Young style and of course, APIAS.net’s opinion….

After the jump….

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5 things you need to know about Louisville v. Tennessee

March 25, 2008

It’s no secret around here that I’m a Tennessee homer, and heck yeah I’m glad and proud that the Fightin’ Pearls are in the Sweet 16 (NCAA Seeding Conspiracy be damned).  But I’ll try my best to give you an impartial preview of, what most people agree, should be the most fascinating Sweet 16 matchup of this year’s tourney.

1. Matchup to watch: Tyler Smith v. Earl Clark.  The Cardinals’ imposing 6-10 presence in the lane will make it difficult on Tyler’s slashing and back-picking inside game.  In order for T-Smith to come close to his 14 ppg average, he’ll need plenty of help from Wayne Chism and Duke Crews to get open looks inside 15 feet, and avoiding the Cardinals’ patented post traps. 

Clark (16 ppg – 20 boards in the tourney so far) is no slouch on the offensive end either, and will run Smith around the baseline, working his above-average interior passing game with Terrence Williams and David Padgett.

2. Derrick Caracter is the X-factor.  For a guy who’s had quite the roller coaster career under Pitino, Caracter can make it all a memory by showing up against Tennessee.  He spent last fall tearing it up (averaging over 22 minutes and 16 points a game) but hasn’t seen the floor much since (zero games with 20+ minutes in 2008) and notched only 15 total points in Louisville’s first two rounds (both blowouts).

3-5 after the jump. (more…)

Ladies and Gents, your lone Cat voter, “Hoops”

March 11, 2008

 I’m sure you’ve all noticed that the new poll is out and sure enough, right there hanging around the bottom having received 3 points is an 18-11 Kentucky Wildcat squad.

This morning, between work smoke breaks and work NASCAR news, we thought we’d take the time to investigate for you where those 3 points came from… which guys are liking what they’re seeing out of the old Blue ‘n White?

Well, as it turns out, its only one dude, Dick Weiss (ballot here), and he voted the Cats #23 (which is 3 points).  Dick, among other things, is a basketball blogger for the New York Daily News.  From his bio:

Dick Weiss – better known as “Hoops” – has been covering college basketball for 40 years, and since 1993 for the NYDN. He is a past president of the College Football and Basketball Writers’ Associations and is a member of the USBWA college basketball writers’ Hall of Fame.

blog_header_weiss.gif

Well hell, he’s a freakin’ hall of famer!  And look at that hairpiece man!  No wonder he ended up nicknamed “Hoops.”

After a bit more research I was able to come across gems such as these on his blog:

We don’t want to get ahead of ourselves, but we think Kevin Willard of Iona is destined to be a hot commodity by this time next year.

Holy crap, a Yankee John Clay!

Okay folks, enough is enough.  In all sincerity, Kentucky fan, send your cards, letters, flowers and candy to: NY Daily News c/o “Hoops” Weiss, 450 W 33rd St, New York, NY 10001.

 And I’ll send mine to the 2 Pulitzer Prize winners who voted the Vols at #1:  Brett Jensen from CUTigers.com and Dan Wolken at the Memphis Commercial Appeal.  What’s that?  They don’t have Pulitzers?  Well they should.  Matter of fact, get one for Fran Fraschilla too!

[NY Daily News] [AP] [APIAS]