TAGMAT!: Lesson #147, Trends


TAGMAT (They are giving money away today!) is a weekly column done every week by APIAS.net’s resident gambling addict, Smoothron.  This site in no way advocates gambling, especially excessively.  Smoothron’s degenerate friend, who will refer to as Casino Bobby also gives you his picks for the week.  If we can tell you anything, bet against both of them and you should be able to retire within the first month of the season.

Not exactly the greatest week if you decided to follow the picks of Casino Bobby and myself.  Our combined 1-6-1 record didn’t exactly help anyone’s economic troubles, except for Vegas’.  Of course, the week previous I went 3-1; apparently, much like my least favorite coach in the world (Sly Croom), I cannot put two straight weeks together.  Casino Bobby just hasn’t been the same after he spent some time in the slammer.  His thinking has been off, and Governor Beshear is still going to outlaw online gambling in the great state of Kentucky.  As you can see (if you read titles), I wanted to talk for a moment about trends.  If you are really looking for a trend, it may be that we suck at picking games against the spread.  HOWEVER, don’t bail on us just yet, we’re going to figure this whole thing out.

The kind of trends we need to start looking at are things like schools not winning at another school’s campus in a while.  There were two great examples of this last weekend: UNC @ UVA and Mizzou @ Texas.  UNC looked like a lock (to me) at Virginia.  Virginia sucks and UNC is pretty good.  UNC was actually up 7 points late in the 4th quarter, but Virginia got a late TD, forced OT and won by 3.  UNC hasn’t won in Charlottesville since 1981.  I wasn’t even born then.  Whoops.  Then, Missouri goes to Texas and everyone is talking about how the Tigers will respond after losing to OK State and might beat the Longhorns.  That was enough to scare me off.  Texas put up 35 before MU even knew the game had started.  Also, Missouri hasn’t won in Austin in 114 (ONE HUNDRED AND FOURTEEN!) years.  I’m not even sure if John McCain was alive then.  Also, Mack Brown hasn’t lost a game at Texas after the Red River Shootout.

The main point of this is this: You probably want to find these trends, because I plan on giving reasons for betting on games like, “USC will be uninspired because there aren’t any hot chicks in Oregon.”  Sorry, maybe next year we’ll do better.  On to the picks, if you dare. 

Casino Bobby’s Picks (1-3 last week, 10-13-2 on the year)

CB’s picks will be here soon.

Smoothron’s Picks (0-3-1 last week (OW!), 11-19-2 on the year)

Minnesota (pk) @ Purdue

Minnesota, somehow, is quietly playing very inspired football this year.  Did you know the Gophers are 6-1?  Me neither.  Purdue, on the other hand, has totally folded things in for pretty-much-already-retired Joe Tiller.  The Boilermakers have a lot in common with the Seattle Seahawks of the NFL: their coach is retiring so the team doesn’t play hard for him.  And, they both suck.  Perhaps if the Purdue nerds students had some time to party before the game they would have a chance, but this is an 11AM local time start.  The Gophers get another win in West Lafayette.

That hat might be cooler than Les Miles'.

Did he steal that hat from Bru?

Georgia (+1.5) @ LSU




LSU really wanted this game to be about four hours later than the start time they got.  By winning last weekend in Columbia, CBS picked the game up for the national broadcast.  CBS shows games at 3:30PM, but LSU plays better at night, especially in Death Valley.  Mark Richt has had the opportunity to watch Florida torch the Tiger defense and SC play pretty well against them in consecutive weeks.  Richt also knows that if he can get his team up for two weeks, they could sneak back into the national title scene.  I just feel like LSU’s inconsistent QB play bites them in the ass this week.  Bulldogs by a TD.

USC (-16.5) @ Arizona

Hey, I learned my lesson last week.  Hell, I thought taking 6TDs+ was a good bet, no matter who you’re playing.  Well, the Trojans covered… by twenty six points!  Coach Carroll has the boys in LA primed to not lose another game for the rest of the year.  And, as learned by last week, he’s unafraid to put some points up.  Mike Stoops and Bob Stoops aren’t as good without each other, and Arizona just isn’t very good.  Sanchez and the USC RBs go wild, Trojans by 3 TDs.

"We're going to lose to Florida too, Jim."Penn State (-2.5) @ Ohio State

To be honest, I thought the spread would be higher than this.  Everyone is drinking the Buckeye Kool-Aid again after they drubbed Michigan State last weekend.  I watched both of those games last weekend and was way more impressed by the Nittany Lions than the Buckeyes.  Penn State is more skilled and more physical than the home team.  They also know that if they win this game they can almost coast into the BCS Title game.  Convince the team to play one great game and all their hopes and dreams come true… I’ll take that.  Plus, they’re playing for a hobbled JoePa; PSU wins by 2 FGs.

You better be ready this weekend, there are some great games.  It’s also Breeders’ Cup weekend and the last weekend of Keeneland for the year.  There’s a ton of money to be made, so find yourself a “guy who knows things” and make some.  Just a tip, Curlin has NEVER run on a synthetic surface and will probably go off at even money so there is no money to be made there.  I’m going with a Casino Drive, Tiago and Colonel John exacta box.  Big payoff will be ready if it hits.


One Response to “TAGMAT!: Lesson #147, Trends”

  1. eDayStat Says:

    Seriously, I’d bet on W’s “coin-flip” games this year and be making a killing compared to what you two would have lost me.

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