TAGMAT!: Halfway Home Hopefuls

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TAGMAT (They are giving money away today!) is a weekly column done every week by APIAS.net’s resident gambling addict, Smoothron.  This site in no way advocates gambling, especially excessively.  Smoothron’s degenerate friend, who will refer to as Casino Bobby also gives you his picks for the week.  If we can tell you anything, bet against both of them and you should be able to retire within the first month of the season.

Here we are, roughly halfway through the college football season.  Wow, it seems like just yesterday that it was that first Saturday of CFB… beer at 9AM, breakfast at 10AM, drunk by 12PM and bed by 3AM the next day.  Oh the glorious!  Last week, we talked about realizing teams for what they were and seeing them for what they are; and somehow it actually worked (I’ll take 3-1 any weekend).  At any rate, things are shaping up and we can start looking at possible National Champions, from a gambling perspective of course.  I’ve said many times that future bets are for suckers, but if you can’t tell, I’m a big sucker.  Here’s a list of teams that could win the title and their odds as of today to win it.

  • #1 Texas (6/1):  Were the Longhorns very impressive last Saturday against OU? Absolutely, but they still have a really tough schedule ahead. They could win out, but in the climate of today’s college football, it’s highly unlikely.  Their best shot is to lose in the next week or two, get their loss then try and bounce back.  I still think Mack Brown can find a way to screw this up and the Longhorns end up in the Cotton Bowl.  Save your cash.
  • #2 Alabama (3/1):  Nick Saban has obviously proved he is the man when it comes to recruiting and coaching, but is it too much too fast for the young Tide?  I say yes as ‘Bama still has three tough games left and a possible fourth.  Tennessee (rivalry), at LSU (there is no doubt this game will be at night) and Auburn (rivalry) all could be a bump in the road before the SEC Championship.  This is a really short price for a team that plays fifteen true freshmen.  My bet is that the Tide lose and don’t ever make it to Atlanta.
  • #3 Penn State (7/2):  JoePa has one Wolverine fan and many others believe in the Nittany Lions this year.  The HD or 3D offense they’re running is clicking and the defense looks just nasty.  The country shudders at the thought of a Big 10 team playing in the title game again, but if PSU gets past OSU next weekend everyone’s worst fears may be realized.  I wish they had better odds, but JoePa probably has a few more tricks up his sleeve.  The Nittany Lions aren’t a bad bet to get there, but chances are they (like OSU the last two years) couldn’t compete against the elite teams.
  • #5 Florida (6/1):  Yes, the Gators got beat by Ole Miss.  They also just hung 51 on the feared and revered LSU defense.  If Tebow and the Florida offense keep things rolling like that, the SEC better watch out.  I say the revenge factor gets them past Georgia and the rest of the schedule isn’t too difficult until the SEC Championship.  Florida has championship experience from two years ago.  I picked the Gators two months ago and am not going to change my pick now.  Keep in mind they have the best odds of any team that I think can win it and this is Smoothron’s pick.
  • #6 USC (3/1):  Pete Carroll has his squad looking invincible again after the trip-up at Oregon St.  USC probably has the easiest schedule of the bunch as well, but I think that loss to the Beavers ends up hurting them too much in the polls.  If you compare one-loss USC and Florida teams at the end of the year, the Gators are going to win that battle pretty easily.  Florida will have gone through the brutal SEC East, played LSU and played another elite team in the SEC Championship.  USC will have beaten at most two ranked teams.  Advantage Gators.

Yes, I just took Florida over Penn State to win the National Championship.  Also, I don’t want to hear anything about Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Missouri, Georgia or any team not in a major conference.  Oklahoma is banking on Texas to lose twice in conference just to get to the Big XII title game, Texas Tech couldn’t guard Michigan’s offense, Missouri is a joke, Georgia is going to lose another one or two and all teams not in BCS conferences please see UGA vs Hawaii in the Sugar Bowl.  Rant over, let’s get to this week’s picks.

Casino Bobby’s Picks (1-3 last week, 9-10-2 on the year)

The world works in mysterious ways. Some days good, some are bad. I’ve recently discovered the Lord. I’m proud to say he’s present and accounted for in my life. Unfortunately he effing hates me. He’s basically up there laughing his happy ass off while I torment myself week after week trying to justify the success of the Bowden’s of the world. But CB pushes through. And this is the week that we turn it around. Bend over Vegas, there’s a footlong of Casino Bobby penetrating through.

BYU +1 vs TCU

 

One of my favorite websites has to do with “Cougars.” I dont know what a Horned Frog even is. Go Cougs.

Ga Tech -2 vs Clemson

Fresh off a firing, the Tigers and their faithful have packed up the bus and are looking toward next year. Insert interim coach. Insert ass beating. Dont feel bad for Coach Bowden. He’s making a few million a year based on the fact that he sucked ass for a decade. I suck at my job and cant afford my rent.

Wisconsin +3.5 vs Iowa

Nothing good comes from Iowa. Field of Dreams was mediocre, and aside from some classic lines from James Earl Jones, the movie was 2 hours of crap. I almost wanted Costner’s daughter to choke on that hotdog. Screw corn, and screw Iowa.

Kentucky -7 vs Arkansas

No self respecting team gets beat by Casey Dick. And Casey Dick doesnt get back to back wins. Defies logic. Cats win.

Smoothron’s Picks (3-1 last week (YEAH!), 11-16-1 on the year)

 

I mean, he pulls his sweatshirt sleeves up above his elbows..

I mean, he pulls his sweatshirt sleeves up above his elbows..

UNC (-4.5) @ UVA

USC @ Washington St. (+42.5)

Is USC going to win this game?  Oh, hell yes.  They are going to win by a lot.  Them getting up by a lot will also end up hurting their chances at covering, though.  As injury prone as Mark Sanchez has been this year, Pete Carroll won’t take any chances with another injury.  The Trojans might be up 30 at the end of the third quarter and all of a sudden it’s Mitch Mustain time.  Also, USC in the Pac-10 is like UK Basketball in the SEC: every team gives you their best shot.  The Cougars are terrible (and if you know me, that if the first time I have ever spoken ill of cougars), but manage to keep it within six TDs.

Mississippi St. @ Tennessee UNDER 37

I know, I haven’t hit an O/U yet on TAGMAT, but this one looks to be the first.  The Bulldogs blew their load last week by beating a pretty good Vandy team and everyone knows that Sly Croom teams don’t play well two weeks in a row.  Tennessee is struggling, struggling to the point that Phil Fulmer is dodging the AD’s calls like a boyfriend who doesn’t want to get broken up with.  I don’t think there’s any chance either of these teams scores more than 17 points.

College Station should hope these two are there Saturday.

College Station should hope these two are there Saturday.

Texas Tech (-21) @ Texas A&M

 We’re at that time in the football season where everyone starts talking about winning big to impress the voters.  Say what you will about the rights or wrongs of this practice, but Mike Leach is a firm believer in running it up whether it’s needed or not.  He wants Graham Harrell to throw for 1,000 yards one game and his offense to score 100 points.  Well, this could be that week.  A&M is absolutely terrible; and no matter how bad TTU’s defense might be, A&M still might not be able to score… not even with these girls… because they’ll be at my house.

Whew!  That was one hell of a TAGMAT!  I had to get a lot of gambling in, though, as I am making myself leave town this weekend as to not be tempted by the allure of Keeneland (which has raped me quite well the past two weekends).  And even if you take all of our picks and they all lose, just remember it could always be worse.  You could have just gotten a sweet job as a bodyguard working for a very prestigious company protecting a guy who is somewhat of a celebrity, then one night you’re on duty and you sneak in the bathroom for a pee break, then what do you know?  The motherf*#%er is attacking you!  Now, you don’t have a job.  Yeah, things could always be worse.
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