TAGMAT (They are giving money away today!) is a weekly column done every week by APIAS.net’s resident gambling addict, Smoothron. This site in no way advocates gambling, especially excessively. Smoothron’s degenerate friend, who will refer to as Casino Bobby also gives you his picks for the week. If we can tell you anything, bet against both of them and you should be able to retire within the first month of the season.
Of course, like every other prediction I make, when I said last weekend’s college football wouldn’t be up to par you should have known it would turn the whole landscape upside down. Although, you really should have known about USC, that was about the only thing I have picked right all year. Last weekend is gone, so let’s look forward to this weekend. This weekend begins one of the greatest gambling months of the year. If you are so lucky to live in APIAS headquarters, you know that Keeneland opens on Friday. The greatness of Keeneland has been discussed on this site many times, so if you don’t know yet about it, I guess we’ll just never reach you. There’s just something special about being able to sit in the clubhouse at the racetrack, betting on horses, calling in bets to the football games you’re watching and getting absolutely hammered. There’s really only one thing that can sum that up: God Bless America.
Let’s turn our attention back to college football, though. Two games have totally jumped off the page at me: WVU (-8) @ ECU a few weeks back and Wisconsin (-6) @ Michigan last weekend. Obviously, being a Michigan fan, I didn’t touch that game, but pretty much everyone I talked to thought the Badgers were the lock of last weekend. What does this mean? It means that the people making the lines are getting smarter, which is not good for the casual bettor. There was no reason West Virginia shouldn’t have gone into ECU and worked the Pirates. Hell, I probably would have given double-digits in that game with WVU, but Vegas knows a hell of a lot more than most and that’s why they have more money than us. The same thing happened with Wisconsin last weekend. Shouldn’t they have beaten Michigan last weekend? Absolutely, but someone knew something more than the public. So, if I can say one thing, if a line looks too good to be true… it probably is.
On with the weekend. This is the weekend we make it all back!
Casino Bobby’s Picks (1-1 last week, 8-7-2 on the year)
(Smoothron Note: Still waiting to hear back from CB. Governor Beshear may have “eliminated” him or he may already be drunk in Tuscaloosa getting ready for the Cats/Tide on Saturday. When/if I get his picks, they’ll be put on here.)
Smoothron’s Picks (1-3 last week, 7-12-1 on the year)
Okay, everything is against the Tigers. Vandy is hosting Gameday on Saturday, is undefeated on the season and most importantly, is undefeated against the spread this year. I just can’t buy it, mainly for one reason: Vandy has no home-field advantage. Quick story; five years ago, my roommates and I go down to the UK/Vandy game (and perhaps some fine Nashville females). I bought 3 (three!) FRONT ROW tickets to the game… for $25 total. Of course, UK found a way to lose the game, but the Vandy kids didn’t even bother to show up until the 4th quarter of the game. That actually happened, the students don’t care about football down there and for good reason. They will be make more money in a month than I will in a year. The moral of the story: Tigers ruin Commodores perfect season.
Texas @ Colorado (+13)
Texas is a hell of a lot better than Colorado, but Colorado isn’t playing the biggest game of their season next year and Texas is. Mack Brown is pretty good at losing to Oklahoma, so he is already trying to think of ways to win that game and not thinking about Dan Hawkins at all. Well, Colorado may not be that good, but they aren’t bad. A lot of offenses will struggle against Florida State’s D, so throw out last week, Also, take into count the altitude and the fact this actually is one of Colorado’s biggest games of the year. Texas wins by a TD.
Missouri @ Nebraska (+10.5)
Nebraska’s offense is pretty good, their lowest scoring output of the year is 30 points. Missouri’s defense is pretty bad… they did give up 21 points to Buffalo. As much stock as I put in Bo Pellini and his defensive mind, I just don’t think it’s going to happen this weekend. There may not actually be a defensive stop in the whole game. If no one stops anyone, the game will definitely stay within double-digits. I would love to see Missouri get knocked off, but a close game will do. Nebraska will keep it within a TD.
Pete Carroll may have one flaw as a coach: not being able to motivate his teams every week to play to their fullest potential. That’s all good and well, but I don’t think that will be a problem this week. I can’t even imagine how intense practice has been after the loss last weekend at Oregon State. Add that motivation to the fact that the Ducks beat the Trojans last year and I think Carroll and the boys will be ready to beat ass on Saturday night. Plus, they always have the added motivation of playing in front of the blonde USC ladies. Glorious, absolutely glorious. Trojans by 30.
If you see me in a ditch outside of Keeneland, please try and revive me. The smell of moonshine usually rouses me.