Gambler’s Paradise – Big XII South

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If you read this blog we have here for more than about a week, you will find that I, smoothron, will occasionally mention a bet or fifty that I make on a random sporting event, horse race, pickup basketball game, or pretty much anything that moves. With not a lot going on this summer (except baseball, and you have a serious problem if you bet on baseball… okay, I will bet a game or five a week) we’ll take a look at some football future betting. Today, the Big XII South…

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The Big XII South is so much better than the North. A lot of people lament the fact that Oklahoma and Texas (the two “best” teams) won’t ever get to play each other in the conference championship. Whatever, quit bitching. Anyways, the South has outscored the North 133-13 in the championship the past three times the game was played. Also, four of the six schools in the division are in the football-player factory known as the state of Texas. As always, I will attempt to stay away from the chalk. On to the teams, odds used from www.bodog.com.

More after the jump…

Baylor 15/1 Guy Morriss took his ass from the Bluegrass to the Big-Ass State in hopes of turning around a football team that has always been at least the fourth best team in its own state. At least in Kentucky, he didn’t have as many schools to battle. Baylor is terrible. They have pretty much done the same thing every year down Guy-Mo has been down there; play a couple good bowl teams close, get embarassed by OU and Texas, and get beat by a team they shouldn’t have. Also, Guy Morris chose to follow the Lloyd Carr route and play twelve straight weeks with no bye. If your team is good, that isn’t a terrible idea, but if you are Guy Morriss, wouldn’t you want to be able to coach as MUCH as possible? 15/1 odds are laughable here, they could be 1500 and it would still be a waste of money to even put a dollar on the Bears.

Oklahoma 3/2 If you like favorites, here is the first of the two in this division. The Sooners will always have a plethora of talent, but sometimes your talent doesn’t work out the way it could. Maybe your talent likes to jump into the end zone and land on its collarbone, or take a “job” at the local car dealer. Oh well, the past is the past, right Bob? To make things short here, OU will not win the division this year. They have a new quarterback, a running back who saw time only after Peterson went down last year, four(!) sophomores on the O-line, and they play Texas and Texas Tech on the road. If the odds were more favorable, it would be worth a flier to throw some at them, but at 3/2 the reward doesn’t merit the risk.

Oklahoma State 15/2 I have nothing to say about the Cowboys except they won’t win the division. Oh, and Eddie Sutton has the best tailgates.191454.jpg

Texas 11/10 The near even-money favorites are the Longhorns. Texas is loaded, Texas will always be loaded. Colt McCoy already has a year of playing under his belt, and threw for over 2,500 yards last season while only throwing seven picks. He also played really well in his second college game against Ohio State. The only knock on the defense could be that they lost D-coordinator Gene Chizik to ISU, but ten of the eleven starters all saw significant minutes last year. They play Oklahoma at home, and three of their four conference road games are against Baylor, ISU, and Okla. State. I hate the chalk, I really do, but it’s hard to bet against Texas to win the division.

Texas A&M 5/1 If the Aggies’ schedule weren’t so brutal, they would be worth a nice long look at 5/1. Alas, the four conference road games for them are: Texas Tech, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Missouri. They probably won’t lose all four, but all four of those are top tier Big XII teams, so even a split would have to make Coach Franchione feel satisfied. For a team like A&M to finally break-through the stronghold that the Sooners and Longhorns have had on the division lately, they’ll need to have a really nice schedule. This isn’t the year for that.

Texas Tech 5/1 Mike Leach is the shit. How can you not love a guy who reportedly drinks like a fish and runs a video game offense? The Red Raiders bring back just enough on offense to make you think they can play with anyone, and the defense… who cares? They don’t play it down there anyway. Their schedule is fair, except for having to play at Texas and at home against Oklahoma the last two weeks of the season. If you want to take a stab at a team with some odds behind it? I say take the Red Raiders, hell, with Mike Leach at the helm, you never know what might happen.
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Smoothron’s predicted order of finish for the Big XII South:
1. Texas
2. Texas Tech
3. Oklahoma
4. Texas A&M
5. Oklahoma State
6. Baylor

Gambler’s Paradise is a weekly column, running every Thursday by SmoothRon, horse & sports gambler extraordinaire.

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